"The Rounds" July 8, 2005

Well, another American Independence Day celebration has come and gone yesterday, and of the 3 of I've now attended, it was the best so far.

The event went with extraordinary smoothness, especially given various administrative glitches in the weeks leading up to the event the committee organizing the party had to hastily overcome -- which they did admirably well, as it turned out. They are to congratulated not only for overcoming those obstacles but also for making this year's party most excellent. Even the weather cooperated, with no rain and a cooling breeze.

Perhaps most moving was the closing ceremony, which isn't surprising. The Royal Thai Army Band gave its usual excellent rendition of the Thai National Anthem. Then a 4-man contingent of U.S. Marines unfurled the colors, and stood at attention while locally well-known American Al Mavro read "For Whom the Bells Toll," an occasion-made recitation honoring all those who serve American society and sacrifice for that service -- and not just the military, as he mentioned public servants, police officers and firefighters, teachers, doctors, and so on. At appropriate moments, a bell did indeed toll, bringing tears to the eyes of many -- and not just American eyes, but also those of our friends from many other nations in attendance. Next came a solo rendition of the American National Anthem, one of the best I've ever heard.

Then . . . the fireworks display, and what a spectacular one it was. The people who perform the display did a splendid job, with an eye towards neighborhood safety obvious in the relatively low level at which the fireworks detonated. (I even felt ashes falling a couple of times, but never felt in any danger.)

I want to extend a particular thanks to everyone involved in making sure the celebration was safe. The uniformed police, military, and fire department presence was extensive, and for that a big thanks to them. And they were all friendly. One pair of commandos was walking the opposite direction I was, and one of them spoke to me, smiling and wishing America a happy birthday. A small gesture, sure, but one I deeply appreciated. Then there was a private security firm as well, and they carried out their end of things without any problems. And I'm sure there were other groups involved, such as intelligence groups.

The whole day was particularly festive. There were games, including ones for adults. One friend of mine took part in the tug-of-war and the sack race. He was at the very end of the rope for the tug-of-war, and quickly realized his side was destined to lose -- so he simply dropped to the ground, hanging on for dear life. He later said he thought that "If they're going to beat us anyway, then they can drag my 20 stone dead weight!" (That equals about 127 kilos or 280 pounds!) In the sack race, he also fell -- but still came in 4th.

The final game was for children and adults alike: the egg toss. Pairs of people stood in opposite lines, tossing an egg back and forth until one or the other on a team broke their egg, thus having to drop out. It took longer than usual this year to get to a winning team; there were 3 particularly good teams, but first one, then a second lost, leaving a winner.

One point I would like to stress: this is a public event open to all our friends, without regard to nationality. I say this because the night before I asked a British friend if he planned to attend. In a rather wounded tone, he said no one had invited him. I hastily told him to consider himself invited now, and that in any case, it is open without an invitation -- and admission is only 100 baht. In the event, he didn't go, or, if he did, I never ran into him.

So, if you're around next year -- the celebration will be on June 30, 2006 -- plan to come. It's a heckuva lot of fun. [Sunday, July 3, 2005]

Thai Fishing Fleet May Switch to Natural Gas

It has been reported today that Deputy Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister Newin Chidchob has suggested the Kingdom's nearly 11,000 commercial fishing vessels switch from the use of petrol or diesel to natural gas for vehicles (NGV).

As we all know, oil prices remain high, and Thailand, as an oil importer, is seriously feeling the pinch. Smaller fishing operations in particular are suffering from price pressures from both directions -- rising operational costs due to hefty fuel costs and having to keep sales prices competitive. Further, through its subsidies for diesel, the government has a financial burden running into billions of baht per year.

Something has to give; that's obvious. The Deputy Minister said the government would work to find financial institutions willing to lend fishermen money interest-free to make the necessary modifications to their vessels' engines to run on NGV, a proposal under consideration by the fishermen.

The move is particularly timely given the lack of widespread public support for other energy-saving measures urged by the government; the reception has been lukewarm, at best.

Even if every sector being hit by rising oil prices gets to raise prices to compensate for huge cost increases, I gather the Kingdom will remain in the position of having to import too much oil unless everyone cooperates -- right from the individual on his 100cc motorcycle to the person driving a stretch limousine.

While converting the fleet's motors to run on NGV is one important step towards fuel conservation and lessening of dependency on oil imports, it is just one step -- a welcome one, if it comes to pass.

Sources:

TNA: "Fishing boats urged to use NGV"
Bangkok Post: "Govt offers gas, diesel option to fishermen"

[Sunday, July 3, 2005]

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Slump in Housing Construction

TNA has a report today "Slow-down in new housing projects" based on a recent report from the Bank of Thailand that confirms a downturn in the local housing market month on month from March to April, at least by some measures.

Although what I see across the street from my home at a construction site for a new, large luxury condominium development is in its early stages is only anecdotal, the work there has been erratic. Some days it doesn't start until 8:00 or 8:30 A.M., and on those days ends well before sundown. Other days, there's almost no activity -- and sometimes none. On still others, work begins as early as around 5:00 A.M. and continues through until very late at night, even into the dark hours of morning.

Friends living elsewhere with such sites near them report similar erratic activity, hinting at a pattern.

I assume this is just one more aspect of the economic stresses currently affecting everyone in the Kingdom right across the spectrum.

Just last week a friend of mine told me he had decided to buy a condo for maybe 4 or 5 million baht, but has he had only recently returned to the country after a substantial absence, he was seeking my and others' opinions. The universal response was to hold off if he had any hopes of making money from such a purchase, unless he turned it very quickly. While making money isn't his purpose, neither is losing value, so he has decided to wait to see what happens.

I heard somewhere the Bank of Thailand has issued new regulations governing lending practices by banks, regulations aimed at tightening credit, which has been almost inconceivably easy for even lower-income people to obtain. Perhaps this will help cool matters, as may the government's announced intention to let the price of diesel float very soon, i.e., end subsidies.

So far I can't see any reduction in traffic, but with PTT raising its fuel prices at all its station to match private-sector service stations' pump prices, I imagine that will come.

Followers of this column have read my fears of an economic crash, but originally I was thinking in terms of 2 or 3 years -- far enough away to make it possible the country could have a soft landing. Now, with matters getting out of hand -- especially in terms of energy costs and runaway residential construction (until now, anyway) -- I'm afraid we're going to see a bitter harvest, and do so sooner rather than later.

But I surely do hope I'm wrong. One 1997 "Asian Economic Flu" was enough. [Sunday, July 3, 2005]

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Progress in the War on AIDS

There is a column in today's Bangkok Post headlined "Progress in the War on AIDS" giving hope the dreaded scourge can eventually be brought under control.

And the author of the piece is certainly in a position to know: Dr. Jim Yong Kim is head of the joint World Health Organization/UNAID program aiming to get 3,000,000 people annually treated with antiretroviral drugs, which can keep people afflicted with the HIV virus alive and with quality of life.

Perhaps one of the most impressive figures in the just-released report by Dr. Kim is that in Africa the number of people treated rose year-on-year from 400,000 in 2004 to approximately 1,000,000 this year -- a very encouraging expansion of the treatment into low-income, hard-hit nations. Though the organization is far from its desired goal, this is genuine progress, and all the public and private donor agencies, private individuals, and governments involved are to be applauded.

This particular program hasn't involved Thailand, though 50 other nations are. In Asia, Burma ("Myanmar"), Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Papua New Guinea, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are participating nations. Perhaps stretching the definition of Asia a bit, Russia is also a participant -- and, after all, there is the Russian Far East. You can get sets of 3 reports for each of the participating countries. In each case, the first 2 reports are downloadable ones in PDF format; the last is in regular HTML format.

The full "3 by 5 Initiative Progress Report" is also available online.

The G* meeting will be held in a few days, and I for one hope the governments involved in that will give full cooperation towards the goal of eradicating the HIV virus. there are certainly signs its worth their time. [Monday, July 4, 2005]

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Local Media Getting Vocal in Reporting on Organized Crime

While news stories addressing the matter of organized criminal activity are common enough, today's edition for July 4, 2005 of the Bangkok Post is nevertheless rather unusual: 4 of the first 5 stories are all about "The Mob."

Here are the 4 headlines:

All 4 stories discuss accusations made -- but unproven -- against various people for their alleged involvement in illicit activities.

I don't mean to suggest this particular newspaper is so different from any other; it's not. Sometimes, even the government-affiliated TNA runs stories along the same lines on occasion, even when a particular story is about people in or connected to the government. So do other media outlets.

Perhaps the what seems to me more than usual stories is because there are a number of high-profile cases in the news right now, such as the alleged corruption involved in the acquisition of luggage scanners for the new airport.

There seems to be increasing dissatisfaction with some authorities, dissatisfaction not always entirely fair.

Take, for example, the Bangkok government's plan to move sidewalk vendors into designated areas. While the vendors do need venues, reports indicate the municipal authorities have already established several hundred and are seeking to set up more -- and I, for one, would sure like to walk down a sidewalk without having to step into the street or step around and over goods blocking the way.

Another good example is the planned subway extension to the new airport. The authorities maintain, almost certainly correctly, that to build it underground, as is the entire existing line, would take much longer and cost much more than to make the extension above ground on an elevated route, similar to the Skytrain. The authorities also say they will have to take less land doing that than they would were they to make the extension underground. In this case, it strikes me as another "NIMBY syndrome" -- "Not In My Back Yard" -- in play, as the objectors are property owners or users along the proposed route.

It'll be interesting to see how the several current cases turn out. [Monday, July 4, 2005]

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U.S. Deep Impact Project Reaches Spectacular End

The U.S.'s Deep Impact spacecraft met its intended explosive end yesterday afternoon [Bangkok time] as it slammed into the comet Tempel 1 head on -- at about 10 kilometers (6.3 miles) per second. That's fast in my book -- about as fast as some drivers here roar along the national highways! ;-)

For those who've been beneath the polar cap since the 2-part spacecraft's launch early this year, Deep Impact consisted of 2 parts, a mother ship that served as an observation platform with 2 cameras from nearby as the 373 kilogram/820 pound impact probe. The mother ship launched the impact probe directly into the path of the oncoming comet at almost the last minute then skipped aside to film the results (visible on the web site). The purpose was to blast through to the interior of the comet so scientists can visually examine it -- the first time an artificial object has ever struck a comet.

Those observations could give clues to the origins of the solar system and how it formed, an area of intense interest among astronomers.

The "wow" factor was very much in play for this space event, as was true when Neil Armstrong became the first man on the Moon almost exactly 26 years ago, though perhaps not so strongly as then, given that Deep Impact was an unmanned mission. Maybe it's more accurate to compare it to the 2 Pioneer deep space satellites that functioned many times longer than scientists expected, sending back data from well beyond Pluto's orbit over 2 decades after their launch, or to the 2 Rovers on Mars.

People around the world observed the event, many on television, others at observatories. The best telescope we have in service right now, the space-borne Hubble Space Telescope, turned its powerful instruments to observe the crash.

The Deep Impact mission makes a perfect prelude for the upcoming resumption of Space Shuttle flights with the launch of Discovery, the first shuttle launch since the catastrophic loss of the Columbia over 2 years ago.

The shuttle is scheduled to lift off at 2:51 A.M. July 14th [Bangkok time] from Florida for the 114th flight by the fleet, and the 31st flight for Discovery. It will orbit at 122 nautical miles for about 5 hours under 12 days, landing at 10:01 P.M. July 25th [Bangkok time].

So, another exciting space mission -- though sure to be an anxious one in the wake of the loss of the Columbia and all her crew -- is just days away. [Tuesday, July 5, 2005]

Late news: China is reportedly working on it's own comet interception program. Its plan and purpose differ from Deep Impact's; the Chinese want to see if they can land a craft on a comet headed towards Earth then use onboard power to divert the comet from an earth-collision course. The story is a bit confusing, as it mentions that Chinese scientists are watching about 700 "space rocks" that potentially could strike earth, but presumably the basic technology is the same whether we're talking about a comet, meteor, or asteroid. [Thursday, July 7, 2005]

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I had a story planned about the U.K. for this week's column, one celebrating "The Cousins'" victory in winning the endorsement of the International Olympic Committee in Singapore yesterday to award the right to host the 2012 Summer Olympics.

Bomb attacks carried out against innocent Brits over the last 4 hours or so (as I write at a bit after noon, GMT, or 7:10 P.M. Bangkok time) changed my layout for this week.

I've sat glued to television the past 2 hours or so, horrified by the turn of events.

If it turns out this is indeed a terrorist attack specifically over the war in Iraq, then I'm especially sorry our allies have paid such a terrible price for their support, support rendered even in the wake of considerable domestic opposition amongst the British public.

Even as I write, two dear friends are quarreling fiercely about this event, one from England, the other from America. And they are dear friends with each other.

I guess there are certain people in the world who are damned and determined to destroy anyone who differs from them in any way whatsoever.

For myself, I hope the authorities hunt each and every single one of them down and neutralize them -- each and every one. [Thursday, July 7, 2005]

Late news: It is now about 7:45 A.M. Friday morning, July 8th. Yahoo! News is reporting 37 dead and about 700 injured; CNN says the same. Both reports were updated less than an hour ago.

Whatever the final numbers of dead and wounded, we are reminded, of course, of the 9/11 attacks in New York City and at the Pentagon nearly 4 years ago. While these attacks have, it appears, resulted in far fewer casualties than those of 9/11, such an event isn't defined by numbers -- the crime in murdering 1 person is, morally, the same as in murdering 1,000.

Although I certainly am no financial adviser, it would be interesting to know what investment counselors are saying to potential investors about the Stock Exchange of Thailand, which closed at its lowest point of the year yesterday.

This is bad news for the national economy, I suppose, at least in the short term. On the other hand, if low share prices help draw foreign investment, I also suppose it might turn out good for the Thai economy in the longer term.

Yesterday's drop of nearly 3.28% was a steep one, the market closing at 638.31 after falling 21.60 points.

By the way, the SET closed yesterday before the London bombings, so they weren't a factor in the day's decline.

No doubt, yesterday's rise in crude oil prices to record highs of over US$61 per barrel won't be greeted with enthusiasm by many -- except shareholders in oil companies. See the CNN story headlined "Oil sets record above $61" for details regarding the 3% rise in oil prices. [Friday, July 8, 2005]

To register your identification if you buy a pre-paid card, all you have to do is to show your identification and write your ID number on the form provided -- there is no charge. But TNA received reports from registrants saying they had to pay 20 baht at some shops in the Minburi and Saraburi areas.

According to Vice Minister for the ICT Minister for the Information and Communication Technology Kanawat Wasinsangworn, this is not true, the report says. The Vice Minister added registration is only at authorized shops, and that ministry officials had checked with representatives of mobile phone service providers such as AIS, DTAC and Orange and received confirmation none of those companies were charging.

Some questions remain as far as foreign buyers are concerned. The article refers to writing down your 13-digit ID number -- which apparently is the number of digits on a Thai national identification card. What if your passport number doesn't have the same number of digits? I suppose there's a way for people with work, retirement, or marriage visas to register, but what about tourists? For example, I have any number of people who work elsewhere but who rotate to Thailand for a holiday regularly and, often, frequently. Can such people register their phones? I'm thinking about civil engineers, airline crew members, construction workers, etc. who aren't here fulltime.

Further, I haven't heard of a list of authorized shops. I suppose the best thing to do is to ask the seller of the pre-paid card where to register. I don't mean the 7-Eleven and the like, but the actual phone company itself.

It's good everyone has until the end of the year to get sorted out on this. In the meanwhile, don't pay any fees -- there's always the possibility that you may not be really registering your phone, which is more important than losing 20 baht. [Friday, July 8, 2005]

Today's TNA is reporting the baht has reached a 10-month low against the U.S. dollar in a story headlined "Thai baht weakest in 10 months."

Thursday's closing exchange rate was 41.68-41.71 to the greenback; if memory serves, it was around 41.30 a few days ago, so the drop is appreciable against the time frame.

The article says bank executives speculate the baht may reach 42 to the U.S. dollar -- but no time frame is mentioned. If it does so over a long period of time -- say a year -- then that isn't so bad. But if it reaches 42 in a matter of a few days or weeks, that might suggest it still has a way to go before bottoming out.

Of course, this means the climate for spending dollars (and a number of other foreign currencies, such as the British pound sterling) is improving -- in exchange-rate terms, that is. I'd be the last to urge anyone to make a major investment right now because of all the other factors negatively influencing the economy.

In writing the headline above I had primarily tourists and people who live here but whose incomes are in dollar in mind. Remembering 1997 and the resultant skyrocketing of prices even for entirely domestic services and products soon after the crash, now is likely as good a time as any to visit The Land of Smiles.

Even if you're plain afraid to go to the Deep South, Thailand is much more, in every sense, than that one area. There are attractions north of there as well. There's Bangkok itself, one of the world's great capitals. Near here are the Pattaya-Jomtien and Chon Buri resort areas. The north and northeast are home to numerous national parks, nice cities such as Chiang Rai, archeological sites, and much more. And at current exchange rates, they're often downright cheap -- even in places where you as a foreigner have to pay the farang price sometimes.

Here's this week's television broadcast schedule:

THE OFFICE SPORTS SCHEDULE
	21.00	Golf	Scottish Open Day 1 LIVE
Fri 8	21.00	Golf	Scottish Open Day 2 LIVE
	21.30	AFL	Kangaroos v West Coast
Sat 9	12.00	Rugby	Eels v Dragons
	13.45	AFL	Pt Adelaide v Melbourne
	14.00	Rugby	New Zealand v British Lions LIVE
	16.55	Rugby	Australia v South Africa LIVE
	19.00	Formula 1	British Qualifying LIVE
	20.00	Golf	Scottish Open Day 3 LIVE
	21.35	AFL	Sydney v Geelong
Sun 10	11.30	AFL	Hawthorn v Adelaide
	14.15	NRL	Knights v Cowboys
	16.30	Cricket	England v Australia 2^nd ODI LIVE
	18.45	Formula 1	British GP LIVE
	19.30	Golf	Scottish Open Day 4 LIVE
	21.35	NRL	Fremantle v Western Bulldogs
Mon 11	19.30	Bikes	FIM MotoGP USA
Tues 12	16.30	Cricket	England v Australia 3^rd ODI LIVE

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THE OFFICE SPORTS SCHEDULE